September 30, 2020: Palantir went public via direct listing at $10 per share. Founded in 2003 by Peter Thiel, Alex Karp, and others, the company spent 17 years private before hitting public markets. A $10,000 investment at IPO would be worth $60,000-70,000 by late 2024.

What makes Palantir unique isn't just the returns—it's the journey. Backed by In-Q-Tel (CIA's venture arm) and controversial from day one, the company built software for intelligence agencies before pivoting to commercial clients. Unlike typical tech IPOs, Palantir was already profitable, generating $1+ billion in revenue.

Four Distinct Growth Phases

The Secret Years (2003-2019)

CIA funding, Osama bin Laden manhunt involvement. Revenue grew from zero to $1B+ entirely through government contracts. Rejected acquisition offers from multiple companies.

The Direct Listing (Sep 2020)

Listed at $10, skeptics doubted commercial viability. Stock drifted to $8-9 as growth investors questioned government dependency. Market cap: $16 billion.

The Meme Stock Phase (2021)

Retail investors discovered PLTR. Stock surged to $39 (290% gain) on speculation. Crashed back to $6 during 2022 bear market—a brutal 85% drop from peak.

The AI Transformation (2023-Present)

AIP (Artificial Intelligence Platform) launched. Commercial revenue accelerated 40%+ annually. Stock rocketed from $6 to $75+, joining S&P 500 in September 2024. Market cap hit $150+ billion.

The Palantir Difference

Government Moat

20-year relationships with DoD, CIA, NSA. Multi-year contracts worth billions. Competitors can't replicate clearance levels and trust.

Commercial Breakout

41% commercial growth in Q3 2024. Fortune 500 clients jumped from dozens to hundreds. AIP drives 5-week deployment cycles.

Profitability Focus

GAAP profitable since 2023. 30%+ operating margins vs peers burning cash. Free cash flow exceeds $1B annually.

AI Platform Edge

AIP integrates LLMs with operational data. Not just analytics—autonomous decision-making. Boeing, Airbus, BP using it in production.

Stock Performance by Entry Point

IPO Day (Sep 30, 2020)

Best

Investment: $10,000

Value (Late 2024): ~$65,000

Return: 550%

Peak Mania (Feb 2021)

Worst

Investment: $10,000

Value (Late 2024): ~$16,500

Return: 65%

Bottom (Dec 2022)

Recovery

Investment: $10,000

Value (Late 2024): ~$120,000

Return: 1,100%

AIP Launch (Apr 2023)

Strategic

Investment: $10,000

Value (Late 2024): ~$85,000

Return: 750%

Key Metrics & Facts

$2.9B

2024 Revenue

30%+

Operating Margin

500+

Commercial Clients

S&P 500: Added September 23, 2024—major milestone for legitimacy
No Dividends: Reinvesting all profits into R&D and sales expansion
Valuation: Trading at 40-50x sales (expensive vs traditional software at 10-15x)
Insider Ownership: CEO Alex Karp owns ~2% stake worth billions
Stock-Based Comp: Heavy SBC dilutes shareholders ~5% annually

Investment Risks

Critical Concerns

Valuation Extreme: At 40-50x revenue, stock prices in decades of growth. Any stumble = brutal correction.
Stock Dilution: Share count increases 4-6% annually from employee stock options, eating investor returns.
Government Dependency: Still 55% of revenue from government. Budget cuts or contract losses hurt.
Competition Rising: Snowflake, Databricks, Microsoft building competing platforms. Moat narrowing.
Volatility: Regular 20-30% swings. Dropped 85% peak-to-trough in 2021-2022. Not for weak hands.

Frequently Asked Questions

$10,000 at $10/share on September 30, 2020

Worth: ~$65,000 by late 2024 (550% gain)

No. Listed in 2020, never split. Still trades at same share count structure.

No. Zero dividend history

Reinvests all profits into growth. Typical for high-growth tech.

Artificial Intelligence Platform—launched April 2023

Integrates LLMs with enterprise data for autonomous decision-making. Drives 40%+ commercial growth.

Trading at 40-50x revenue
Market prices in 40%+ growth for years
AI hype amplifies valuation
High risk, high potential reward

Commercial customer growth (40%+ rate)
Government contract wins
AIP adoption metrics
Profitability trends
AI market sentiment

Palantir: AI-driven insights, profitable, 30% margins

Snowflake: Data warehouse, not yet profitable, 5% margins. Different use cases.

High risk, high reward:

Valuation stretched (40x sales)
Momentum strong but unsustainable
Only for aggressive growth investors
Expect 30-50% volatility

Extremely volatile

Dropped 85% peak-to-trough (2021-2022)

Regular 20-30% swings in weeks. Not for conservative investors.

Valuation compression if growth slows
Microsoft, Databricks competition
Government budget cuts (55% revenue)
Stock dilution from employee comp

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